Weekly Wrap Up #37 | T-Bonds Near 5%; Altcoins Stirring
By Matthew BrienenA Volatile Week With Real Progress
This week gave us just about everything: hotter inflation data, an aggressive move in Treasury yields, oil continuing its breakout, a stock-market pullback and finally a volatile crypto rally following CPI.
The market did not deliver a clean risk-on confirmation, but crypto held together better than I would have expected under the circumstances. More importantly, several altcoins continued building the rounded bottoms, higher lows and moving-average recoveries we have been waiting to see.
The central thesis heading into next week is straightforward. Bitcoin still needs a meaningful pullback eventually, but if it can remain stable while Bitcoin dominance falls, the rest of the altcoin market may finally get its opportunity to catch up.
Inflation Kept the Macro Tape Hot
Thursday’s PPI reading came in hotter than expected, while the ECB raised rates by another 25 basis points. That reinforced the market’s concern that inflation remains hotter and more persistent than previously expected. Risk assets reacted accordingly, while the 10-year Treasury yield and oil were among the strongest markets on the board.
Friday’s CPI report was more complicated. The month-over-month reading was hot, but the year-over-year figure came in cooler. Markets initially focused on the more encouraging annual reading, triggering a sharp rally across crypto before part of that move was surrendered.
The next major macro event is the September 16 FOMC meeting. Until the bond market begins showing confidence that the Fed has room to become less hawkish, rates remain a meaningful pressure point for risk assets.
Treasury Yields and Oil Sent a Warning
The 10-year Treasury yield continued the enormous bull-flag breakout we have been tracking and reached 4.992% on Friday, putting it within a fraction of 5%. The larger structure has established approximately 4.66% to 4.68% as a potential new floor. A short-term cooldown is increasingly reasonable, but the bond market remains extremely hot.
Oil also confirmed the macro flag that had been developing since 2022. It reclaimed the major pivot zone, moved above its primary moving averages and broke the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the larger 2022 through 2025 cycle.
The next major oil resistance sits between $107 and $113. A failure to reject from that area would leave the market exposed to a double top near $129 and potentially a macro extension toward $175. After this week’s run, a cooldown toward approximately $92 would be reasonable without invalidating the larger bullish structure.
The dollar attempted to form a double bottom, but it still needs to reclaim approximately 90 to 90.5 to return to a more convincing long-term bullish position. Continued dollar weakness would provide the more familiar environment in which risk assets can flourish.
Stocks Bent, but the Strongest Indices Held
The Dow Jones broke below its 50-day moving average and took out the lows that had held since August 20. By Friday it had produced a strong bounce, but a backtest around 52,900 to 53,000 followed by another move toward approximately 51,600 remains possible.
The Russell 2000 followed a similar path. If its current support fails, the 2,740 to 2,780 region should offer a much stronger area for a bounce.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remained the stronger indices. The S&P briefly closed below its 50-day before reclaiming it, while the Nasdaq continued defending its key support. Both finished the week without a major structural breakdown.
The chip market also remained constructive. Intel was the most attractive short-term setup, with an entry around $96, a stop near $89.90 and a target around $128. NVIDIA was already further along in its retracement sequence, leaving less immediate edge.
Bitcoin Still Owes the Market a Pullback
Bitcoin spent the week struggling with its 50-week moving average and reached nearly $80,000 following CPI. That rally experienced meaningful rejection, and the current structure still looks distributive to me.
I continue to believe that Bitcoin needs a proper higher low. A backtest below approximately $75,000 would be healthy, with the preferred larger zone sitting between $66,000 and $70,000. That kind of correction would rebuild the foundation required for a more sustainable bull market.
The ideal short-term outcome is not necessarily an immediate Bitcoin breakout. I would prefer Bitcoin to remain stable for a little longer while dominance continues falling. Bitcoin dominance declined another 0.3 percentage points on Friday, giving Ethereum and the broader altcoin market room to outperform.
Ethereum and the Altcoin Window
Ethereum entered the week with overdue backtests near $2,250 and $2,150, but the CPI reaction instead pushed it to approximately $2,664 and through its 50-week moving average before some of the move was returned.
The ETH/BTC pairing was the more important development. It reclaimed its 50-week moving average, moved back above 0.032 and successfully tested the previous-high region. The equal highs overhead mean the pairing has not fully confirmed a new trend, but this is the kind of relative strength we need to see before altcoins begin sustainably outperforming.
Earlier in the week, I outlined the ideal combination as ETH/BTC moving toward 0.035, Bitcoin reaching approximately $83,000 and Bitcoin dominance dropping aggressively. We did not receive that entire sequence, but the dominance decline and ETH/BTC recovery moved us closer to it.
The Strongest Altcoin Structures
ONDO remains one of my favorite long-term setups. Its pennant has been developing since May, it continues to display Wyckoff-style accumulation, and the larger structure has remained unusually stable. Below $0.40 remains attractive, while the 200-day moving average near $0.32 would provide a deeper opportunity. A successful expansion would first open approximately $0.57.
VELO broke a range that had suppressed price since January. A secondary test around $0.004 would provide a strong entry and help confirm that the old ceiling is becoming a new floor. The next unresolved equal-high region sits around $0.0084.
ALGO continues to display classic rounded accumulation paired with a double bottom. A break above $0.10 to $0.11 would provide the confirmation needed to open the path toward approximately $0.15 to $0.20.
API3 is developing one of the cleaner inverse head-and-shoulders structures in the market. Support around $0.20 to $0.21 remains critical, while a break above the $0.27 neckline would confirm the setup and create the opportunity for a proper neckline backtest.
HBAR repeatedly defended its 50-day moving average around $0.072 but still needs to overcome its 200-day and the major $0.083 resistance level. A successful double bottom at support would provide another layer of confirmation.
Casper and VeChain Keep Building
Casper spent nearly a month coiling inside its pennant while remaining above the 200-day moving average. The consolidation has been slow, but that is often where the best opportunities develop. A move above approximately $0.004 would challenge the 50-week moving average, while reclaiming $0.007 would return Casper to much more comfortable structural territory and open the larger $0.027 area.
The fundamental picture also improved. Astral Beam is designed to connect Casper with Ethereum-based Polygon, Robinhood Chain and the T-REX network for tokenized real-world assets. Casper expects to become the first non-EVM blockchain participating in that network.
The bridge distributes verification across five independent relayers and requires at least three to agree before an on-chain transfer proceeds. If finality is missing, data providers disagree or ambiguity remains, execution stops. That design is intended to reduce the concentrated trust that has contributed to historical bridge exploits.
VeChain also produced a strong break above its 200-day moving average. I would avoid chasing it directly into resistance. The preferred pullback sits around $0.006 to $0.0065, while a confirmed move above approximately $0.007 to $0.0076 would establish a more convincing higher low. The largest longer-term imbalance remains near $0.021.
HNT, XRP and XLM
HNT completed its inverse 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $0.48 after falling approximately 50% from its $1 high. This is reasonable dollar-cost-averaging territory. The deeper support band remains between $0.34 and $0.41, with additional limit opportunities discussed around $0.46, $0.40 and $0.33.
If HNT can eventually break above $1.18, the next major areas are $2.26 and $3.16. Much further out, the $20 region remains too important to ignore as a significant take-profit area.
XRP held the expected region around $1.28 to $1.30 and remained inside its flag. Below $1.50 is reasonable accumulation territory for anyone who still needs to improve an average, with approximately $1.15 representing the larger downside case discussed this week.
XLM continued defending the moving-average cluster near $0.175 to $0.18. The existing trade remained protected in profit during the week, with the 50-week moving average still serving as the major breakout barrier.
Trade Management Stayed Disciplined
The first Sushi trade was managed exactly as planned. We protected it at break-even, closed partials and took profit around $0.25. The subsequent pullback created another opportunity, and the new trade was entered around $0.214 with a $0.194 stop and a $0.35 target.
The Solana setup remained unfilled at the end of the week. The plan is still a $96.50 entry, a $91 stop and a $120 target, producing approximately 4.48 units of reward for every unit of risk. We either receive the entry or we do not. There is no reason to chase it.
Cardano entered around $0.20 with an original $0.182 stop and $0.32 target, offering approximately 7-to-1 reward relative to risk. After the stop was moved to break-even, the market returned to the entry and closed the trade without a loss. I am not rushing to re-enter while other exposure remains open.
That risk discipline matters. Opening five correlated long trades does not create diversification when all five depend on Bitcoin behaving the same way. Three trades, or occasionally four, is generally enough. If the market disproves the thesis, there is no value in being disproven five times instead of three.
Zcash Is a Profit-Taking Lesson
Zcash entered the week around $1,250 after an extraordinary advance from its 2024 low near $15. At its peak, the move represented approximately 7,000% to 8,000% performance. That is not accumulation territory. It is profit-taking territory.
The $1,400 to $1,500 region remains an important take-profit area. Larger macro Fibonacci targets sit between approximately $2,300 and $3,800, while the measured move from the multi-year cup-and-handle structure supports a final technical case near $4,200.
That does not technically justify the $11,000, $18,000, $30,000 or $100,000 calls circulating online. Anything can happen in crypto, but once price moves beyond what the chart supports, the risk of rewriting a carefully constructed exit plan becomes enormous.
By Thursday, Zcash had rejected directly from the 3.618 Fibonacci extension. The first meaningful price-action support appeared near $882, while approximately $730 would represent a fuller rebalance. That left roughly 35% downside risk from the reviewed location. Existing holders should have take-profits locked in and should not turn the moon bag into the entire strategy.
API3’s Fundamental Picture Improved Too
API3’s technical setup was reinforced by two important governance developments. One proposal would direct OEV revenue, curator fees and staking-related yields into recurring API3 market purchases, effectively putting protocol earnings back to work inside the ecosystem.
Another proposal would reduce the staking target to 30%. The quoted staking APR is technically capped at 70%, while the approximately 110% APY visible during the week reflected locked rewards recompounding. Those yields are variable and should decline as participation approaches the staking target. Historically, API3’s APY has ranged from the high current level down to approximately 7% to 8%.
Crypto Tax Rules Are Still Evolving
Thursday’s conversation with Count On Sheep provided an important reminder that the Clarity Act is primarily a regulatory bill, not a comprehensive crypto tax bill. Its central question is whether the CFTC or SEC takes the leading role, with more specific tax legislation likely to follow later.
One proposed staking bill would allow taxpayers to elect not to recognize staking income until the asset is sold. That could help prevent situations in which someone owes ordinary income tax based on a high token price, then later realizes a capital loss that cannot fully offset that income.
Wash-sale and constructive-sale rules still do not generally apply to crypto in the same way they apply to securities, although H.R. 9172 could change that. A separate proposal would create a de minimis exception for network fees and other transactions under $10.
The arrival of Form 1099-DA also does not eliminate the need for accurate records. Cost basis will only be reported for covered assets. Once an asset moves between wallets or exchanges, that information may not follow it, creating the risk of an incorrect zero-dollar cost basis and an unnecessarily large tax bill.
Better Tools Are Coming
The Coin Library was fully refreshed this week, and I have been improving the methodology behind it so updates can happen more frequently and consistently.
I also shared an early look at the research terminal we are developing. The goal is to combine the macro tape, key news, market temperature and a daily delta board in one configurable workspace. Eventually, members will be able to focus that experience on the assets and changes they personally care about.
Count On Sheep also introduced a $299 self-guided Coinly course that includes a Coinly license valued at $199. If the do-it-yourself approach proves too complicated, that purchase can be applied toward professional reconciliation services.
The Weekly Bottom Line
This was a constructive week wrapped inside a dangerous macro environment. Inflation remains stubborn, the 10-year yield is pressing 5%, oil has completed a major breakout and Bitcoin still owes the market a proper higher low.
At the same time, Bitcoin dominance is falling, ETH/BTC is improving and several altcoins are producing the accumulation structures we have spent months waiting for. The probability of a broader altcoin move has improved dramatically, but it has not reached the point where every setup deserves blind confidence.
I am staying patient, letting entries come to me, limiting correlated exposure and respecting the take-profit plans already created. If Bitcoin can remain stable while dominance continues lower, the altcoin window is opening. We just need to make sure we do not confuse a better opportunity with permission to abandon risk management.