Week 25 | 6/20/22 - 6/25/22
By Matthew BrienenNews Flash
Monday 6.20.22: Crypto broker Voyager Digital has secured sizable loans from quantitative trading firm Alameda Research to help see it through the current market turmoil. Voyager’s line of credit is split into two parts. The first is a $200-million facility combining a mix of cash and Circle’s stablecoin USD Coin (USDC). The second is a revolving credit facility for 15,000 BTC, worth around $309 million as of Monday morning.
Tuesday 6.21.22: Crypto lender BlockFi has secured a $250 million revolving line of credit from crypto exchange FTX. Prince said the proceeds from the FTX loan are contractually subordinate to all client balances, meaning that BlockFi will satisfy its obligations on client accounts—BlockFi Interest Accounts, BlockFi Personalized Yield and loan collateral—before paying FTX.
Wednesday 6.22.22: Voyager Digital announced it may issue a "notice of default" to the struggling crypto investment firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) if it fails to make a loan repayment. Shares in the New York-based crypto platform plunged by more than 60% after it revealed that itsexposure to 3AC comprises 15,250 BTC & $350 million in USDC.
Thursday 6.23.22: Blockchain intelligence firm Chainalysis has launched a Crypto Incident Response Program to assist organizations that have been targeted by hackers and ransomware to recover their funds. Targeted organizations that have opted for coverage from the unit will get access to a 24/7 hotline. Once contact has been made between the victim organization and the response unit, Chainalysis will assign a team of experts “to work around the clock and side-by-side” with them, and, if need be, help liaise with law enforcement.
Friday 6.24.22: Coinbase has rebranded FairX as the Coinbase Derivatives Exchange, and its "nano Bitcoin futures"—1/100th of a Bitcoin, marketed under the ticker BIT—is its first listed crypto derivatives product. Many traders prefer futures as they allow for around-the-clock trading, lower upfront investment, "and the ease of going long and short," Ilyevsky said. "Our BIT futures contract will offer the same benefits but is built with the retail trader in mind."
Technical Recap
Bitcoin has now closed 2 weekly candles below the 200-week moving average at ~$22,500, and is currently trading ~8% below the MA. In 2020 we saw prices trade roughly 4% below the 200w MA before reclaiming as support. After dipping in the mid $17,000 range 2 weeks ago, we are currently maintaining above the 2017 high of nearly $20,000.
BTC/USD Weekly Chart
If we are unable to reclaim the 200w MA as support, we can look the $15,000-$17,000 region to provide support as these are meaningful levels both with Fibonacci's and previous local highs in 2019 and 2020. Examining Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), we can see there has been another pause out at 43% after rejecting the 48% level for the fourth time. If dominance continues to fall, altcoins will continue to hold their ground.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Weekly Chart
DXY or Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the dollar, nailed a perfect 70.2% fib retracement last week before pulling back. If DXY is able to stay below 105.7, we can expect risk on assets to see further relief (as it is seriously overdue). Breaking over 105.7 opens up 109.9, which would bring more pain to risk on assets. Critical levels we have to keep an eye on these coming weeks.
DXY 2-Week Chart
Project Breakdowns & Daily Update Recaps
Didn't catch all the daily update streams? We've got you covered with highlights & links to the full episodes. Monday 6.20.22: Brian discusses the similarities between the Dot Com Bubble and cryptocurrency, as well as the Fed's history of tightening monetary policy. Matt addresses a range of news and topics, including why he has moved all of his Nexo assets, FTX Sam Bankman-Fried potentially putting a short squeeze on Celsius, and a short Bitcoin ETF.
Tuesday 6.21.22: Matt covers top news stories including BlockFi obtaining a $250 million line of credit from FTX, the UK abandoning plans to monitor unhosted digital wallets, andpro-crypto Congress members. The show was closed out with some technical analysis of equities, US oil, the US currency index, and cryptocurrencies.
Wednesday 6.22.22: Dan Habib describes market fear withpoorly positioned companies, on-chain analytics, and an interesting fact about Bitcoin miners. Matt presents a clear analysis of equities, the US dollar currency index, and a long-term forecast for these selected altcoins. Decker talks about the Coinbase One beta and its benefits.
Thursday 6.23.22: Matthew provides a top-down market analysis as well as a deep dive into the Dow Jones since 1896. Matthew also explains The Fibonacci Sequence, how to set up your Fibonacci tool in TradingView, and how to use them using Bitcoin and XRP as examples.
Friday 6.24.22: Dan outlines how low stocks can go and upcoming major news items as well as technical analysis of Bitcoin. Matthew discusses a fractal he is considering on XRP, reviews Bitrue & shares his top 5 exchanges.
