The Retest Is the Real Test

The market gave us a little bit of everything this week: pressure in equities, relief in Treasury yields, sharp crypto wicks and a Thursday bounce that Friday immediately put back to the test. My takeaway is pretty simple. Several altcoins are finally revisiting the areas I wanted to buy, but that does not make every chart a bargain or every bounce a confirmed reversal.

This wrap covers our October 13–16 shows, with Friday’s Technical Tune Up setting the latest view. These are the levels and conditions discussed during those sessions, rather than live quotes or confirmed weekly closing prices.

Rates offered relief, but the pressure has not disappeared

Dan opened Tuesday with the most important question for risk assets: have Treasury yields finally reached a level that attracts enough buyers to slow the climb? The 10-year had pushed into roughly 5.34%–5.36% before slipping back below the important 5.29% area. Higher yields offer investors an alternative to stocks and crypto, so getting some relief there matters.

The inflation discussion on Tuesday was a preview, not a report of the eventual CPI result. Headline inflation was expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.6% year over year, with a 0.5%–0.6% monthly increase. Core was expected around 0.2% for the month. Dan pointed out that the prior unrounded annual core reading was 2.446%, so even a small change could make the rounded headline move from 2.4% to 2.5%. Shelter, including the volatile lodging component, was the wildcard. We should not confuse those expectations with confirmed readings.

By Thursday, yields had pulled back despite the hotter wholesale inflation numbers discussed on the show. That was welcome, but the technical distinction matters: a breakout followed by a successful retest can also set a market up to move higher again. Friday’s chart review left room for a deeper 10-year retracement toward 4.8%, with a smaller unfilled area around 5.18%. For the 30-year, roughly 5.28% remained a lower area of interest. Those are potential chart destinations, not promises that the rate problem is over.

Oil remained a counterweight. The gap near $99.70 discussed earlier in the week had been filled by Friday, while Thursday’s broader retracement map still allowed room toward $128. Durable progress around the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz matters more than another short-lived headline. The dollar was also retesting previous highs, so I am not treating a modest pullback as a complete change in trend.

Thursday’s wick was not Friday’s confirmation

Wednesday brought broad selling, including a roughly 6% drop in silver. Thursday then delivered a much more constructive reaction: stocks bounced, the dollar softened and a lot of crypto assets recovered after trading below important moving averages. By Friday’s recording, the Nasdaq was down almost 2.5%, chip stocks were under pressure again and several of those optimistic reactions were being challenged.

The Dow was still struggling to reclaim its 50-day moving average. The Russell 2000 remained fragile below its 200-day average after testing the 50-week, with roughly 2,890 identified on Thursday as an important recovery area. The stronger S&P 500 and Nasdaq structures still had support beneath them, but a sharp intraday recovery was not enough to call the correction finished.

Intel was a good example of why I separate a short-term trade from building a longer-term position. The nearby support discussion stayed around $84–$85. The much deeper areas of interest were $70 and $53. A better price can improve the setup, but I still want the chart to earn the entry.

Bitcoin needs to give the altcoins some breathing room

Bitcoin’s early-week map centered on $82,500 support and the $86,800–$87,000 resistance area Dan wanted reclaimed with closes and backtests. His monthly view also highlighted $76,300 below. As the week developed, my focus moved toward the possibility of revisiting Thursday’s wick just under $80,000, with $75,000–$75,500 and the broader $67,000 area still open below.

That is why Bitcoin was not my favorite fresh dollar-cost-averaging setup at Friday’s levels. It had offered a better accumulation opportunity below the major $75,000 ceiling earlier in the structure. Meanwhile, dominance had climbed toward 60.5% on Thursday. Bitcoin stabilizing while dominance falls would give altcoins a much better environment, but we had not earned that conclusion yet.

Ethereum’s preferred deeper limit remained $1,950, with $2,150 a nearer alternative discussed Friday. For restarting a DCA below $2,400, I wanted several proper daily candle-body closes beneath that level, not one quick wick. Solana’s nearer floor was around $97, while $90 was the shallower limit alternative and $82 the preferred deeper level. The big three still had more unfinished work than several of the smaller assets on our list.

The pullbacks I actually wanted to see

HBAR was one of the clearest examples. The September breakout had finally come back into its important support and 200-day moving-average area. Around $0.08 remained the limit zone, with a DCA below $0.10 still fitting the setup discussed Friday. That is a very different proposition from chasing the late-September high.

ONDO also delivered the retest I had been asking for around $0.40–$0.42. Friday’s framework allowed DCA below $0.55, with a limit around $0.42 for another wick fill. XLM was working through its moving-average cluster, with roughly $0.179–$0.18 discussed for entries and a DCA ceiling around $0.21. XRP’s deeper level remained $1.15, while the $1.25 September low was still an important nearby reference.

Algorand’s pullback put $0.107 back on the limit map, with $0.097 the deeper alternative and DCA below $0.13. Cardano’s higher-high, higher-low structure remained encouraging: Friday’s DCA area was below $0.25, with $0.20 a deeper support scenario and $0.30 still the upside level I wanted reclaimed. These are differentiated setups, not a reason to buy every red candle indiscriminately.

Smaller caps: good structures still need follow-through

VELO was working back toward $0.004, my preferred limit, with a DCA area around $0.0046 and below. Its accumulation structure remained intact in the review, and roughly $0.008 was the next major overhead area. HNT had given back more than half its move from around $1, keeping DCA below $0.57 on the table while $0.34 remained the deeper limit reference. Those lower levels are planning areas, not guaranteed floors.

For Casper, Friday narrowed the DCA ceiling to $0.0027, with $0.002 the limit area. API3 still had its inverse head-and-shoulders structure and support above the 50-day and 200-day averages. The deeper limit was $0.25; DCA beneath roughly $0.35–$0.38 remained the approach discussed, with a large impulse higher a reason to stop that accumulation. Thursday’s confirmation marker was candle-body closes over $0.38, rather than simply tagging it.

Sushi continued to show a constructive rounded structure and a possible handle. Around $0.21 was the nearer limit, with the 200-day near $0.198 another reference. Render’s $1.76 limit remained acceptable, with $1.57–$1.60 the deeper area and DCA below $2 discussed as an alternative. Polkadot was defending its moving-average cluster but still needed to prove the breakout. Around $1 was the limit reference; reclaiming the $1.26–$1.28 band would improve the case for the $1.65 and $2 areas discussed Thursday.

Plume was the standout loser on Friday, down roughly 11%–12% during the show. That did not automatically invalidate the larger rounded structure. It did shift attention back to a possible handle, limits around $0.016–$0.017 and the importance of the $0.015–$0.016 region. The $0.022 area continued to cap the immediate move. The larger $0.07–$0.08 scenario remains conditional on that structure resolving higher; it is not a forecast to treat as already underway.

Where I am still asking for a better deal

Zcash remained the clearest example of a strong performer that was not automatically a good new entry. Dan discussed the $800–$900 region earlier in the week. By Friday, my minimum swing-trade area was around $750, while the chart was still around $1,150 during the review. A big rally and an attractive fresh risk/reward setup are two different things.

Filecoin still had unfinished business around $0.85. Friday’s plan was to wait for a break below $1.05 before turning a DCA back on. AVAX remained primarily a limit setup around $8.70, with $8.30 the deeper area discussed earlier; a break below $10 was the condition for reconsidering DCA. VeChain had improved with its pullback, but $0.006 and especially $0.005 remained the more tactical limit areas, with Friday’s DCA ceiling at $0.008.

Chainlink was another case where I preferred a limit to buying indiscriminately. Around $11 was my entry of interest, while the deeper imbalance near $8.85 remained open. The show also discussed DCA under roughly $13–$14 depending on existing averages and goals. The point is to match the approach to the chart and the position you already have.

Friday’s requests reinforced the same lesson

The member-request charts kept bringing us back to the same principle: a breakout becomes more trustworthy when it comes back and proves support. NEAR looked extended into resistance; I wanted roughly $3.12–$3.15 rather than chasing, even though continuation toward $8.40 was possible. PYTH offered a more interesting rounded structure around a $0.064 retest, with $0.23 an overhead area if the setup develops.

For CVX, around $1.81 was attractive in the technical review, but a break above $2.40 was the important higher-high confirmation, with $3.26 an overhead imbalance. ICP needed sustained progress above $3.22, a clean break of its flag and then support building toward $4.13 and $5.72. Another oversized green candle without follow-through would not answer the question.

A new research desk, and the same discipline

We also launched the new CryptoCharged platform Friday. The goal is to make the research easier to use: concise macro outlooks, the Research Desk Watchdog’s three show highlights, a more actionable Coin Library and reader controls that let you choose how to consume the analysis. There is more refinement ahead, and member feedback will help shape it.

Going into next week, I am encouraged by the relief in yields and by how many altcoins have finally returned to technically meaningful areas. I am still watching Bitcoin’s unfinished retests, dominance and whether daily candle bodies confirm what the intraday wicks only suggested. For planned entries, I prefer limits; for a DCA, I want a defined ceiling and an approach that fits the existing position. The opportunity is improving, but patience and follow-through are still doing the heavy lifting.