Weekly Wrap Up #34 | Bulls Just Kicked Down the Door
By Matthew BrienenA Challenging Macro Backdrop
We started the week with Treasury yields pushing into uncomfortable territory. The 30-year yield reached roughly 5.31%, its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year moved as high as approximately 4.73%, near its highest level since January 2025. Those yields created more competition for risk assets and helped pressure the stock market, even after inflation data came in cooler than expected.
Headline CPI was essentially flat at roughly 0.07%, gasoline declined 2.9%, and core CPI rose a tame 0.2%, one-tenth below estimates. Year-over-year core CPI eased from 2.6% to 2.5%, matching its lowest level since March 2021. Producer prices were also softer than expected, with headline PPI flat against expectations for a 0.2% increase. Core PPI rose 0.2%, while the year-over-year readings fell from 5.5% to 4.7% headline and from 4.7% to 4.2% core.
The inflation data did not make a convincing case for another rate hike, especially alongside weakening labor figures. Weekly ADP data was tracking toward only about 40,000 jobs for the month. My base case remains that the Fed does nothing this year, although oil near $85 per barrel and the ongoing war with Iran could put renewed pressure on the next headline inflation report. By the end of the week, the dollar was weakening, but the 10-year yield was still climbing, so the macro environment remains far from easy.
Bitcoin Delivers the Breakout
Bitcoin began the week near $64,000–$65,000, outperforming much of the broader crypto market but still pressing into resistance it had struggled to hold since early June. The larger-cycle picture remained cautious because Bitcoin was still dealing with its 50-month and 200-week moving averages. Historically, bear markets have produced declines of roughly 48%–55%, leaving open the possibility of one more capitulative move into the mid-to-high $40,000s, potentially around $48,000.
That longer-term risk did not stop Bitcoin from producing a major short-term breakout. By Wednesday, it had broken above the 50-day and 200-week moving averages, cleared the roughly $66,500 neckline that had capped price for about 70 days, and confirmed an inverse head-and-shoulders structure. The formation carried an estimated 15% measured move from the neckline.
By Friday, Bitcoin had pushed to roughly $77,000 and cleaned out the overhead imbalance we had been tracking. The consecutive Heikin Ashi candles with no lower wicks showed strong momentum, and the breakout was much more convincing than another temporary push above range. After such a sharp advance, however, I would rather see price stabilize and backtest the breakout area than chase an extended candle. A successful retest would give this move a much healthier foundation.
The longer-term-holder picture also remains constructive. Approximately two million Bitcoin have moved into long-term-holder supply since the beginning of the year, taking that supply to record levels. Even if the traditional four-year cycle still produces another correction later this year, that accumulation could create an explosive setup for the next bull-market phase.
Ethereum and Solana Follow Through
Ethereum finally delivered the second leg higher we wanted after building a rounded bottom and spending weeks trapped near $1,900. It broke above its local range and produced an aggressive follow-through move, leaving approximately $1,950–$2,000 as the preferred pullback zone. A successful retest there would create a stronger base for another push higher.
Ethereum still has several important gates ahead. Roughly $2,375 is a major recovery level, followed by the 200-week moving average near $2,450–$2,490 and the 50-week and 100-day moving averages near $2,815. Taking out the April high would make the move look less like a temporary retracement and more like genuine trend repair. The Ethereum-to-Bitcoin pairing also began pulling back into what could become a higher low, which would support broader altcoin participation.
Solana broke its flag, reclaimed the 50-day moving average, and then pushed above the 200-day. The series of higher lows strengthened the structure considerably. The key short-term floor began around $78 and moved closer to $82 as price advanced, while the next major resistance zone remained approximately $96–$100. Holding the reclaimed floor is what keeps the path toward those highs open.
Altcoins Begin Catching Up
Bitcoin dominance rose by roughly 1.4% from its weekend low and continued pushing higher as Bitcoin led the initial breakout. That explains why some altcoins lagged even while the total market rallied. By Friday, dominance had recovered much of its prior imbalance, creating the possibility of a cool-off that could finally give the broader altcoin market more room to participate.
XRP reclaimed the 200-week and began closing above the 200-day moving average near $1.30. The next important levels are $1.50, roughly $1.62, $1.80 and $2.00. A sustained reclaim of $1.80 would move XRP into a much more bullish technical position, although an open imbalance near $1.15 remains a short-term vulnerability.
HBAR finally moved above its 50-day moving average, but it remained behind XRP structurally. Approximately $0.077 is the next recovery level, followed by the major point of control near $0.12. Algorand continued building a firm double bottom near its 200-day moving average, while Cardano produced one of the cleanest sequences of higher highs and higher lows. For Cardano, $0.20 is the preferred pullback floor, $0.25–$0.32 is the next major opportunity zone, and a reclaim of $0.47 would represent meaningful macro trend repair.
VeChain also showed encouraging progress by holding a triple bottom near $0.0044, reclaiming its pivot zone and 50-day moving average, and establishing approximately $0.005 as a fallback level. Sushi delivered its first potential close above the 200-day moving average since October. A reclaim of $0.25 would open a much more liquid path toward approximately $0.50, although a backtest of the breakout would offer the cleaner entry.
Zcash Takes the Lead
Zcash became one of the week’s clearest leaders, breaking its pennant and 50-day moving average before surging approximately 25% on Friday. The chart now contains several overlapping bullish structures, including a large cup and handle, an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, and a pennant breakout.
The move could target a little over $1,000 in the near term, with broader Fibonacci studies producing overlapping zones around $950–$1,070, $1,380–$1,600, and approximately $1,800–$2,300. Those levels do not make an extended candle a good entry. After a 25% daily move, I would prefer a proper backtest near $640 or potentially as deep as $560. This is also exactly where having a written profit-taking plan matters. A moon bag can remain open-ended, but the rest of the position should not be managed on emotion.
Small-Cap Opportunities Improve
VELO produced its first serious candles above the 200-day moving average, although $0.004 remains the immediate level to clear. There is tradable room between approximately $0.005 and $0.0088, while a larger structural reclaim above roughly $0.008 would improve the long-term picture. The major upside imbalance remains near $0.27–$0.28, with possible intermediate trim areas near $0.04 and $0.07.
API3 closed above its 50-day moving average, but approximately $0.26 and the descending 200-day remain the next test. A broader recovery toward $0.50 would materially improve the long-term setup. Casper completed much of the pullback we expected and came close to its preferred accumulation area near $0.0024, making small additions more reasonable after the market cooled.
Plume stood out as a potential swing setup after holding support near $0.009 since February and producing its first convincing candles above the 200-day moving average. A reclaim of roughly $0.019–$0.02 could open a much larger imbalance toward $0.07–$0.10. SUI also reclaimed its 50-day moving average, with $0.85 acting as the next major gate, followed by $1.05 and $1.40.
The Week’s Bottom Line
This was the strongest week of technical progress we have seen in quite some time. Bitcoin broke a 70-day ceiling and ran to roughly $77,000. Ethereum, Solana and several altcoins reclaimed meaningful moving averages, while Zcash delivered a decisive leadership move. The market finally gave us breakouts based on structure rather than meaningless percentage gains inside a range.
I am encouraged, but I am not abandoning discipline. Treasury yields remain elevated, oil is still applying inflation pressure, and several charts are extended after consecutive breakout candles. The next confirmation comes from seeing former resistance hold as support. If those backtests succeed and Bitcoin dominance cools, we could be entering a very profitable period for swing trades and broader altcoin rotation. Until then, I’m protecting profitable trades, avoiding emotional entries, and letting the levels—not the excitement—guide the plan.