Tech Takes the Hit
By Matthew BrienenThe Rebound Did Not Survive Thursday
We started the week with technology leading the selling, got a sharp post-election rebound Wednesday, and watched Thursday erase it. The Dow’s roughly 1,550-point Wednesday gain gave way to an approximately 1,800-point Thursday decline. Bitcoin briefly recovered $80,000 before returning toward the mid-$75,000s. Friday’s modest bounce was useful, but it did not restore every broken level.
My focus through that volatility was where price met structure. Intel reached the $53–$54 area I wanted. Several altcoins remained in accumulation territory. The S&P 500 still has a conditional deeper backtest ahead, while the Nasdaq finally reached its minimum review around 26,200. Early-week optimism has to be read alongside that later damage.
AI Spending Meets the Earnings Test
Monday’s AMD earnings concern was overtaken by a positive earnings and revenue surprise. I acknowledged that Wednesday. Thursday then broke the stock below support anyway, showing why a good report and a good chart are separate tests. Friday’s roughly 11% rebound into the broken band still left the recovery unproven.
Dan’s election-day and Thursday discussions focused on AI capital spending, debt and cash flow. He sees possible delays to data-center construction as a risk to companies reliant on that expansion. Those are his interpretations and scenarios; the shows did not establish how much capacity will ultimately be delayed. A prolonged decline could also weaken spending through the negative wealth effect he described.
Intel remains my clearest technology accumulation interest from these sessions. Its $82–$85 overhead gap is a potential recovery review, while a deeper $30 scenario would require more severe weakness. Nvidia’s failure to recover $193 leaves that shelf overhead, with $168 and roughly $145 the lower reviews discussed Thursday. Alphabet’s nearer gap remains around $316; its much deeper $200 preference belongs to a separate long-term scenario.
Yields Ease Without Solving Every Risk
Dan cited the 10-year yield near 4.96% on election day and roughly 4.80% during Thursday’s risk-off session, down from the earlier 5.36% peak. He attributed part of that move to demand for safety and expectations that fiscal gridlock could restrain additional spending. Lower yields can improve financing conditions without immediately ending equity or crypto selling.
Weak hiring, the risk of rising layoffs and persistent inflation remain part of his economic framework. Dan’s labor-market assessment preceded the scheduled Friday payroll report and its revisions. Oil’s reaction also differed across sessions: Dan discussed the possibility of easing conflict pressure, while my technical view continued to favor the larger bullish structure above the $75–$80 region.
By Friday, gold still had not cleared roughly $4,170 and silver remained below $54. The dollar strengthened above its 200-week average. The 10-year stayed above roughly 4.8% during the small bounce, while the 30-year remained below 5.28%. Yield relief, dollar strength and unfinished equity recovery can all occur together.
Bitcoin’s Rally Still Needs Follow-Through
Wednesday’s stronger scenario required more than Bitcoin touching $80,000. I wanted a forceful break through $83,000–$85,000, stronger altcoins and falling dominance before becoming comfortable leaving the deeper imbalance for later. Thursday did not deliver that combination. The $68,000–$69,000 unfinished areas returned to the center of the discussion, with the older $66,000 patient limit a separate deeper plan.
Ethereum’s possible inverse-head-and-shoulders structure against Bitcoin remains a relative-performance idea. The roughly 27% measured scenario discussed Wednesday refers to that ratio, not a promised 27% gain in Ethereum’s dollar price. Ethereum still has its deeper $1,950 review, while Solana’s preferred larger band is $78–$82.
A decline in Bitcoin dominance helped cushion relative altcoin pressure later in the week. It did not mean every altcoin was rising or that an uninterrupted altcoin season had started. Friday left Bitcoin near Thursday’s position, with support response and completed daily candles still more useful than one session’s percentage change.
API3 Changes Its Supply Model
The executed API3 proposal ends ongoing staking emissions, retires the Aragon DAO and moves governance to Snapshot. A final treasury mint of just under 10 million tokens brings total supply to 200 million. I see the cap as a meaningful improvement to the long-term tokenomics, although it does not confirm a price reversal.
The seven-day unstaking period is separate from the original one-year vesting schedule on earned rewards. Those rewards remain on their existing schedule and no longer earn additional staking rewards. Holders can participate in Snapshot governance without staking, with one vote per API3 token. The chart still needs a convincing recovery around its $0.27 hurdle.
Accumulation Plans Get More Specific
Velo’s DCA cutoff is $0.004, and HBAR’s is $0.10. Above those ceilings, the plan shifts back toward patient limits. Algorand remains below the $0.10 recovery line after Friday’s bounce, with its broader accumulation approach intact. Cardano’s preferred lower limit settled at $0.16. XRP’s deeper review remains $1.08–$1.15, while Ondo retains its $0.32 patient limit and existing accumulation framework.
Helium’s weak price did not change my preference for staged accumulation. The week’s published casino report offered a concrete usage example: more than 127,000 carrier sessions over three weeks. That operating evidence is more useful than assuming similar technology used by another company means a Helium partnership. Render is another position I’m building through a daily DCA. Casper’s flag still needs a clean breakout; it has not earned a claim of confirmed recovery.
Plume’s Friday instruction tightens DCA to below $0.016, replacing the earlier $0.02 ceiling. Chainlink’s patient entry is now $8.70 after Thursday’s $8.75 reference. Filecoin remains around its $0.77 support review, and Avalanche retains the reversal structure discussed after its deeper backtest.
The revised Sushi Bitunix futures plan uses 0.177 USDT entry, 0.139 USDT stop and 0.48 USDT target. Friday also allowed roughly 0.183 USDT as an entry consideration. The nominal reward-to-risk ratio at the original revised entry is about 7.97 before costs. Those values are distinct from the Coinbase spot plan, and the shows do not independently establish an individual fill. Zcash still needs to prove its recovery around the nearer $1,275 test and higher $1,350 and $1,545 hurdles; the $1,066 floor and $877 lower review remain relevant.
Adoption News Keeps Moving
The week’s news showed several different kinds of progress in tokenization. Morgan Stanley joined DTCC’s rollout, NYSE outlined shareholder-voting services with Broadridge for a planned venue subject to approval, and Apex and Chainlink demonstrated a Swift-aligned bond-compliance framework. These developments do not mean every tokenized-stock venue has institutional backing or that every compatible token has been selected.
Friday’s Ondo report adds a live JTX trading venue on Solana using issuer-quoted execution, with access restrictions still relevant. Samsung Wallet’s USDC integration on Solana and Stripe Global Payouts on Base add payment routes with their own custody arrangements and eligibility limits. Nigeria’s stablecoin licensing framework adds rules for local and overseas issuers and prohibits algorithmic tokens.
The SEC broker-dealer draft entered White House review, but the text and final outcome remain unknown. Earlier staff governance FAQs were nonbinding guidance. The Binance investigation also developed: the FBI attributed the theft to North Korean actors, while North Korea denied responsibility. Those competing statements and the exchange’s phased restoration process should not be flattened into a claim that every recovery step is complete.
What I’m Carrying Into Next Week
Friday’s member picks reinforced the same entry discipline. Qualcomm below $170 looked more interesting than chasing extended technology names. Home Depot needed either a lower review around $310 or a confirmed break and backtest of $350. Palantir’s $126 gap review offered more structural appeal to me than buying simply because the stock was down. Nebius had reached a denser support area, while Enjin still needed a stronger fundamental case.
I want to see the Nasdaq hold its completed backtest, the S&P defend its current region, and crypto recover with a more helpful dominance relationship. If the S&P confirms two heavy daily closes below 7,300, the 7,000 review remains in play. A stronger bounce would be welcome, but I’m keeping those conditions beside the accumulation opportunities and sizing additions around the portfolio I actually own.