Bitcoin Finds Its Backtest

Bitcoin finally reached the backtest I have been talking about since the August breakout. It took a rough week to get there: a Monday equity bounce gave way to hotter inflation, rising yields, Nvidia’s leadership upheaval and another leg lower in crypto. By Friday’s show, Bitcoin had touched roughly $67,500 and dominance had fallen for two sessions, giving altcoins some breathing room.

This wrap covers the November 9, 10, 12 and 13 member shows and the news published through Friday. Prices and levels are the observations and plans discussed during those shows, not confirmed weekly closing prices.

Inflation changes the rate conversation

Dan’s Tuesday show followed October CPI: headline prices rose 0.4% and core rose 0.3%, both a tenth above the forecasts he cited. The shutdown-related gap in October 2025 data meant there was no standard annual comparison for the report. Shelter rose 0.3%, but inflation extended beyond shelter.

The bond market sold off after the report. Dan expected a quarter-point Fed hike in December and noted that futures also reflected a smaller chance of a half-point move. Those were expectations, not a Fed decision. He also saw a possible path to softer energy inflation if oil kept falling, while acknowledging the uncertainty around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

By Friday, the 10-year yield had closed above its 50-day average. I still see a possible retracement before yields move lower, but that outcome needs to develop. The dollar continued its breakout; I am watching a possible pullback toward 102.5 and longer-term areas around 104.6 and 106.3. Oil held its 200-day average during Friday’s show, with a break above $91 opening roughly $10 of potential upside in my chart work.

Nvidia’s week rattles the chip trade

Nvidia’s board opened an independent investigation after reports that Jensen Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. The company subsequently announced that Huang had stepped down as CEO and CFO Colette Kress would serve as interim CEO. The investigation’s outcome remains unknown.

On Monday I was watching the roughly $170 support area and the possibility of a deeper discount. Thursday brought a sharp selloff and rebound, but Nvidia closed below $166. By Friday the stock was battling roughly $165–$167. I still like the possibility of an upside backtest of the broken structure, but I would also welcome a deeper price if the market offers it.

Intel reached the $53 limit area I had discussed, and I am continuing my DCA. AMD bounced hard from its 200-day average, but it did not reach the entry I wanted. Friday’s review put a break below $440 back into the conversation.

Bitcoin does the work

Monday’s weekly review focused on the larger accumulation shape and a possible deeper backtest. Dan watched $72,000–$73,000 support Tuesday, with $70,000 and approximately $68,000 as lower reviews if it failed. Thursday, with Bitcoin around $71,000, I was still looking toward the $65,000–$66,000 area and the 200-week moving average.

Friday’s move to roughly $67,500 brought Bitcoin near the backtest area I wanted. I think the minimum work is done and the inverse-head-and-shoulders structure is looking stronger. That is my reading, not proof of a bottom. A sweep toward $60,000 remains possible. If Bitcoin stabilizes, the upside imbalance around $75,750 is a possible near-term review.

Dominance fell roughly 0.7% and 0.8% over consecutive sessions. That gave altcoins relative relief while Bitcoin declined. A reversal in dominance could still put pressure back on them, especially if Bitcoin weakens again.

The altcoin plans

Ethereum reached and filled the downside imbalance I wanted, with $2,350 an upside imbalance. Solana also returned to its preferred accumulation area. Both can spend time building a base or move lower before a stronger recovery.

I continue to favor XRP DCA below $1.30, with around $0.80 as a patient limit. Ondo remains a DCA below $0.42. HBAR’s DCA ceiling is $0.08, with $0.056 a possible limit, while Algorand’s Friday plan is DCA below $0.10 and a possible $0.08 limit. Cardano’s Friday DCA ceiling is $0.20. VeChain’s is $0.006. These are show-time plans and do not establish individual fills.

Helium, Velo and Casper remain on my accumulation list, although their weakness has been uncomfortable. Velo’s DCA ceiling remains $0.004; Casper needs to recover $0.002 for more confidence. API3’s ongoing staking emissions have ended, so the old automatic reward component is no longer part of the thesis.

Zcash lost support during the week. Dan discussed $700–$900 as a possible buying range Tuesday; by Friday I was still allowing a move toward $690–$733 if Bitcoin weakened and dominance rose. Chainlink around $8.74 and Polkadot around $0.76 remain patient reviews for me. Sushi and Plume were discussed as active trade ideas, but an individual position, fill or current trade status must be checked separately.

Stocks and tokenization keep moving

The Nasdaq completed its preferred backtest before Monday’s bounce. Friday’s level to improve the structure was 28,820. The S&P 500 had not completed the same deeper work: 7,550 remained overhead, while a support failure could open a review around 6,980.

This week’s news also brought several tokenization developments. NYSE selected Avalanche technology for a planned tokenized securities platform, and DTCC plans to connect its tokenization service to Solana in the second half of 2027. Those are separate projects with their own timelines.

The CryptoCharged Ladder entered desktop beta, with tools for building buy and sell plans. Set aside some time to map your own sell ladder. A plan made before the market gets euphoric is easier to follow than one assembled in the middle of a rally.