Fed’s Waller Signals July Rate Cut as Growth Slows and Jobs Data Wavers

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is openly calling for a rate cut at the upcoming July 30 FOMC meeting, citing a weakening labor market, slowing GDP growth, and soft inflation data once tariff impacts are stripped away. According to Waller, the current policy stance is 1.25%–1.5% too restrictive and no longer appropriate for the economic backdrop.

Waller’s remarks come as key labor indicators, aside from the BLS’s headline jobs report, show mounting softness. He questioned the reliability of the BLS data, pointing out that 2024’s job growth was overstated by 50% based on QCEW revisions. Inflation, he added, is near target when discounting transitory factors like tariff-related pricing. He further argued that failing to ease soon could force the Fed to act too late, undermining its ability to soften a deeper downturn.

His stance reflects growing concern that the Fed has tightened too much for too long. With GDP averaging just 1% in the first half of the year and long-run inflation expectations still well anchored, Waller insists now is the time to begin returning to a more neutral stance—not to stimulate, but to avoid overtightening. If the Fed acts, markets could see a significant repricing in risk assets, with crypto, gold, and equities likely to benefit.