October CPI Rises 0.4%, Hotter Than Forecast as Bitcoin Slips

By Matthew Brienen

Published: 2026-11-10T14:23:27.582+00:00

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, exceeding the 0.3% forecast cited by CoinDesk. The increase was slower than September’s 0.6%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast and unchanged from September’s pace.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the seasonally adjusted figures on November 10. Food, shelter and energy all contributed to the increase, leaving the Federal Reserve with another report showing persistent pressure on household costs.

There is an important gap in this month’s data: BLS did not publish a standard year-over-year CPI rate for October because October 2025 data were unavailable following the federal government shutdown. A monthly increase cannot be substituted for a missing 12-month reading.

Where Prices Rose

Shelter rose 0.3% in October and accounted for more than 30% of the overall monthly increase, according to BLS. Rent rose 0.2%, while owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.3%. Shelter carries a large weight in the index, so even a modest monthly increase can have a substantial effect on the headline figure.

Food prices increased 0.5% after being unchanged in September. Grocery prices rose 0.4%, and food away from home increased 0.5%. Energy advanced 0.7%, a much smaller increase than September’s 5.2% jump; gasoline rose 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

There were declines in some categories. Used cars and trucks fell 1.2% after a 0.7% gain in September. The range of changes matters because the headline combines many different prices rather than describing the experience of every household.

Bitcoin and Bond Yields React

CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin slipped to around $73,600 shortly after the release, adding roughly 1% to its earlier losses. At the time of its report, the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.93% and the two-year yield around 4.69%, both higher on the day.

Those prices are snapshots of the initial reaction, not closing levels. Markets move on expectations as well as the economic numbers themselves, and a hotter-than-expected report can affect expectations for borrowing costs and liquidity.

CoinDesk also reported that Fed Governor Christopher Waller had argued for a December rate increase and suggested a half-point move could be considered if inflation came in strong. His remarks are one policymaker’s view, not a decision by the Federal Open Market Committee.

The Next Fed Decision

A 0.4% monthly headline increase is slower than September’s reading, but both headline and core came in above the forecasts cited in the report. Policymakers will weigh this release alongside other inflation, employment and economic data before their next decision.

For crypto investors, the connection is indirect: changes in expected interest rates can influence Treasury yields and the appetite for risk across markets. The CPI report does not determine Bitcoin’s next move or guarantee a particular Fed outcome. The next CPI release, covering November, is scheduled for December 10.